Indonesia is entering a demographic transition that will shape its social and economic future for decades. While public discourse and policy continue to prioritize productivity, growth, and a young workforce, a quieter but equally critical reality is unfolding: Indonesia is ageing, and the country is not yet prepared to care for its older population.

Today, around 34 million Indonesians, approximately 12% of the population, are older persons. By 2045, that number is projected to rise to 65 million, or roughly 20% of the population. This shift will significantly increase demand for long-term care, at a pace that is faster than previously anticipated. Yet care systems, labor policies, and social protection frameworks have not kept up with this demographic reality.

Care work (caring for children, older persons, people who are ill, and persons with disabilities) remains largely invisible in Indonesia’s economic and labor systems. It is still widely perceived as a domestic or moral responsibility rather than as real work that sustains productivity and social wellbeing. As a result, care work is rarely recognized, regulated, or protected within formal employment frameworks.

The consequences are already visible. Of Indonesia’s elderly population, around 40% (approximately 13 million people) require long-term care. However, Indonesia has only around 400 nursing homes nationwide, with a combined capacity of 80,000–120,000 people. This means that only about 1% of older persons who need long-term care can access institutional services. The vast majority of care is therefore provided informally by families, without pay or adequate support.

Caregiving is also deeply gendered. Both global and national data show that women shoulder a disproportionate share of unpaid care work. In Indonesia, this imbalance limits women’s participation in the labor market, reduces their ability to accumulate savings and assets, and increases their vulnerability to poverty in later life. When care work is excluded from labor protections, it creates a cycle of structural inequality that extends across generations.

Professional caregiving capacity remains limited. While Indonesia recorded around 582,000 nursing professionals in 2023, this figure includes hospital nurses, and only a fraction are trained or employed as caregivers for older persons. The actual supply of elderly caregivers is therefore far below current needs, and even further from what will be required in the coming decades.

As Indonesia’s population continues to age, the country needs to strengthen a long-term care ecosystem that can respond to growing needs. This means preparing a skilled caregiving workforce, improving access to training and certification, and encouraging collaboration between government, universities, service providers, the private sector, and communities. A more coordinated approach would help ensure that care services are available, affordable, and responsive, while supporting families who currently carry most of the burden.

Waiting until the ageing wave fully arrives is not an option. Without early action, the costs, social and economic, will rise. Families may become increasingly strained, older persons may face declining quality of care, and opportunities for economic participation and productivity could be lost. Recognizing care work as real work, with clear standards, fair pay, and social protection, is not about turning care into a commodity. It is about ensuring that those who provide care are supported, and those who receive care can live with dignity.

Investing in a long-term care ecosystem today is therefore an investment in Indonesia’s future. It supports healthy ageing, reduces pressure on families, and helps build a society that is resilient, inclusive, and prepared for demographic change as the country moves toward 2045.

Care Work at the Center of Indonesia’s Ageing Future