Indonesia’s development agenda has long focused on building an ultra-productive generation. Major investments are directed toward youth, skills, and workforce competitiveness to drive economic growth toward 2045. But in this forward-looking push, one critical reality is still under-addressed: Indonesia is already ageing, and it is happening faster than expected.

Over the next two decades, today’s productive workforce will transition into old age. Demographic projections show that the share of older persons will rise from 12% of the population (34 million people) in 2025 to 20% (65 million people) by 2045. At the same time, the support ratio will shrink sharply, from 6.5 working-age people supporting one older person today to just 3.2 by 2045. This mirrors trends already unfolding in countries like Japan, where the ratio has narrowed to around 2:1.

Indonesia’s demographic bonus is also projected to end within the next 7–8 years, sooner than initially expected. Yet the country remains underprepared. Only around 5% of older persons have access to pensions, leaving most elderly Indonesians dependent on immediate or extended families. This reality has produced a growing “sandwich generation”: individuals at their economic peak who must support both children and ageing parents. By 2045, this burden is expected to double, placing increasing pressure on households and the broader economy.

Ageing and caregiving cannot be separated. As the elderly population grows, so does the demand for long-term care. Today, around 40% of Indonesia’s elderly, approximately 13 million people, require long-term care. Yet care infrastructure remains extremely limited. Indonesia has only around 400 nursing homes, with a total capacity of 80,000–120,000 people, meaning only about 1% of those who need long-term care can access institutional services.

As a result, care is overwhelmingly provided by families: informal, unpaid, and unsupported, with women bearing the largest share of responsibility. Research consistently shows that informal caregiving reduces women’s participation in paid work, drains household savings, and weakens long-term productivity. Professional elderly care is also scarce. While Indonesia recorded around 582,000 nursing professionals in 2023, this figure includes hospital nurses, and only a small portion are trained or employed as caregivers for older persons.

Waiting until the ageing wave fully arrives is not an option. Delaying action will only increase social and fiscal costs while narrowing choices for families. Indonesia needs to invest now in an integrated, long-term care ecosystem—one that supports families, builds care markets, creates jobs, attracts investment, and preserves dignity in later life.

This is not about shifting all responsibility to the state. It is about recognizing care as essential social infrastructure. Indonesia’s productive future cannot be built on an overburdened sandwich generation. Building a long-term care system today is an investment in the society and economy Indonesia aims to become by 2045.

Indonesia Can’t Wait: Welcoming Ageing Beyond Productivity